The Top Investor Challenge: Schools Edition was a simulated experience—but the thinking, decision-making, and strategy were very real. Armed with R1 million in virtual capital, learners had to navigate fictional scenarios designed to test their instincts, their planning, and their ability to stay cool under pressure. Some thrived. Others learned. All gained valuable insight into what it takes to invest wisely.
In this scenario, investors were faced with rising global tensions, trade disruptions, and a big gap between inflation trends in the US and South Africa.High inflation in the US led to rate hikes, while trade disruption weighed on global growth. The Developed Market ETF and Global Tech Company would have underperformed, hurt by weaker demand and a sharp correction in AI-linked tech stocks.
At the same time, new tariffs and supply chain problems pushed food and energy prices higher. The Commodity ETF would have done well in this environment, and the Gold ETF would have helped protect portfolios as uncertainty climbed.
Closer to home, South African inflation came down, interest rates were cut, and investors in South African bonds would have gained as a result. The South African discretionary retailer also stood out, lifted by strong demand from teens for retro gadgets and beauty products.
This scenario saw global trade bounce back, a major surge in AI innovation, and real progress on South Africa’s reform agenda.
The AI boom helped drive productivity and economic growth, especially in developed countries. Portfolios with exposure to the Developed Market ETF, and the Global Tech Company in particular, would have benefited from this trend.
South African equities also saw support as the country made headway on economic reforms, infrastructure development and water exports. Investors in local shares, and especially the South African bank, would have benefited from increased economic activity.
The South African discretionary retailer would have benefited from increased youth spending, driven by the popularity of thrift fashion and a resurgence in mall shopping culture.
At the same time, oil prices fell, and the Commodity ETF would have underperformed - driven by oversupply and a global shift toward cleaner energy sources.
A stronger rand during this period would have detracted slightly from the performance of offshore assets.
This scenario was shaped by high inflation, climate-driven food shocks, and a major change in the global monetary system.
Gold became central again, and demand surged after countries moved back to a modern gold standard. Investors with money in the Gold ETF would have been well positioned, while the Commodity ETF would have gained from rising food and gold prices. The South African mining company would have also done well, as export volumes and commodity prices rose.
South Africa’s trade surplus and falling interest rates would have resulted in gains for South African bonds and equities, while the South African bank would have benefited from lower borrowing costs and a strong outlook for economic growth.
The rand strengthened over this period, which would have reduced the value of offshore investments. Investors holding global bonds would have also been negatively affected as rising interest rates pushed bond prices down.