If you assess a manager's performance over 1 year, expect to chase your tail.
If you assess a manager's performance over 1 year, expect to chase your tail. Short-term returns are irrefutably random. Most managers are likely to claim the occasional good year - this is just the laws of statistics at work. However, when you assess performance over meaningful periods (3, 5 and 10 years) you'll find only a handful of managers who consistently deliver.