Pulse check: reflecting during times of accelerating change

A world in transition

At present, the world feels louder, faster, and more uncertain. Events are unfolding at a relentless pace, and all of us can certainly feel the pressure of keeping up. Political instability, global conflict, climate pressure, and volatile markets are no longer episodic – they constitute structural realities that are persistent and entrenched.

The early events of 2026 have shocked allies and adversaries alike. America continues to dictate foreign policy dynamics in key regions and often on its own terms. At home, it appears to have domestic conflicts are escalating quickly and significantly.

This is just one of many moments over the past year where events have felt deeply counterintuitive. The reason is that we continue to interpret the world through the lens of a liberal global order shaped over the past 80 years, even as that order visibly fades in front of us. It has become clear that the historically held rules-based order is eroding, and that we are now firmly in an era of great power rivalry.

One of the defining events of 2025 was undoubtedly the 2 April 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements. President Trump remains, unmistakably, a tariff man, and this was his chosen mechanism to address what he sees as entrenched inequalities in the global economic landscape.

Despite the disruptive manner of the announcement, and the scale of the initial figures, global trade tariffs rose by only around 10% on average last year, and the full-blown global trade war that many feared ultimately did not materialise. At the same time, however, the US economy appears to be weaker than the headline numbers suggest. Much of its apparent resilience has been driven by an AI-led investment boom of a scale not seen in some time – a boom that, while powerful, masks underlying fragilities beneath the surface.

China, the US – and leverage

China sustained significant impact on Liberation Day. Yet, as the year progressed, its strategic position has emerged as formidable.

Through dominance in secured rare earths and critical minerals, China wields substantial leverage, compelling the United States to recalibrate. From President Xi’s perspective, the first Trump administration served as a clarion warning: revealing American unpredictability and China’s vulnerabilities stemming from economic interdependence. That recognition led to deliberate action.

Through Made in China 2025, and a strategy known as dual circulation, China began to systematically reduce its exposure to external pressure, while building its own ability to retaliate economically if required. One can argue that these were not improvisations; rather, they were deliberate strategies that have recalibrated global power dynamics.

Allies caught in the middle

The thing about great power rivalries is that they never play out in isolation – their consequences ripple across the globe. For America’s allies – Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines – the past year has been a rollercoaster.

For much of the year, relationships were as strained as they have been in a decade. Japan and South Korea, in particular, were shocked. These are model allies, and yet they were treated in a way that felt cavalier and unconsidered.

To be fair, some of that damage was repaired in the second half of the year. Prime Minister Albanese’s visit to the US was widely welcomed. A major critical raw materials deal followed soon after. Trump and Takaichi met in Tokyo, complete with the now-famous box of golden golf balls. The APEC meeting with South Korea also appeared constructive.

But let’s be clear: America’s allies are always nervous about abandonment, and currently, they are particularly nervous – with good reason. The world seems to be edging closer to a G2 reality: One in which global issues are divided and negotiated between two major powers.

The pace of change – and the cost

The velocity of events has proven formidable. Algorithms that now form part of our daily lives operate ceaselessly. Automated systems do not relent, and human actors struggle to maintain pace.

Traditional media, once guided by editorial judgement, however imperfectly, has yielded to discourse being shaped by algorithms whose sole objective is to increase engagement. In the midst of this, we have learnt something uncomfortable: The fastest way to capture a human’s attention is to press the fear, anger or hate button.

As a result, the right questions are often drowned out. Deep thinking gives way to emotional reaction, and the most important conversations are not always the ones shaping outcomes. We seem to communicate more, but understand less, and yet, we cannot opt out. We cannot put our heads in the sand and hope for a world we wish still existed. We must meet the world as it is, and work through it.

A thought exercise

To see how this plays out in practice, consider Greenland, elevated abruptly to prominence in global discourse. Does America’s interest here signify a pursuit of peace, or piecemeal advantage?

We have seen how lawfare is increasingly used not as a mechanism for fairness, but as a tool in geopolitical power plays, designed to entrench dominance rather than resolve disputes.

At the same time, the beyond-Earth narrative has become increasingly mainstream: Space, satellites, control – long the realm of science fiction – but now, inevitable. History’s inexorable advance now encompasses that final frontier. Through all of this, the world continues to change – relentlessly and at speed.

From geopolitics to portfolios

Over the past two decades, we have lived through crises across finance, health, energy, and geopolitics. Each crisis has exposed the risks of extreme global integration under which humanity has prospered for almost a century. Consequently, nations are increasingly prioritising self-reliance in food, energy, defence, supply chains, and finance.

When established rules falter, self-protection becomes imperative, and this instinct now defines much of the contemporary investment landscape. Yet we also know, intuitively, that a world of isolated fortresses is rarely the strongest long-term solution.

At Davos in January, Mark Carney spoke powerfully about the nature of the transition, or the ‘rupture’ as he called it, that we are living through: A period where old certainties are fading faster than new frameworks can fully form. His message was clear: Stability will not come from nostalgia for the past, but from the deliberate rebuilding of trust, resilience, and credibility in our economic and financial systems. It is clear that in times of transition, leadership matters, and so does discipline.

Leadership in accelerated times

So, what does this mean for leadership in these accelerated times? What does effective leadership now demand? In my view, it goes beyond intellect or technical acumen alone. The real differentiator is unlikely to be brilliance by itself, but rather relentless grit, attention to detail, and the humility to adapt, correct course, and endure.

Effective leadership requires the willingness to admit errors quickly and to change direction when necessary, because, as many leaders will tell you from experience, problems never age well – and that risk is magnified in a world that is evolving at this pace.

When leaders are asked what they wish they’d done differently, the answers are remarkably consistent: They waited too long, they tolerated too much bureaucracy, they delayed people decisions – and they paid the price later. Those lessons matter more now than ever.

Perhaps it is fitting, then, that 2026 is the Chinese Year of the Horse, or more specifically, the Fire Horse. It symbolises a period of high energy, rapid progress and independence, driven by strength, speed and ambition. It encourages bold decisions, the pursuit of freedom, and an acceptance of fast-paced change.

‘Fast-paced change’ – those words remind me of a poem by Rudyard Kipling that I believe captures the behaviour we need in times like these – the poem is called If, and its first stanza captures what we need to heed in these times:

If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, but make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired of waiting…

Coronation’s edge in a fractured world

So, where do we, Coronation, find ourselves in this fractured world? At Coronation, we regard our core values not as peripheral, but as a distinct competitive edge. We have cultivated relationships grounded in depth, reliability, and a long-term orientation amid pervasive short-termism.

Our track record speaks plainly: An investment of R100 000 in a Coronation equity fund 31 years ago would now exceed R10 million. This reflects neither fortune nor happenstance, but discipline and patience applied consistently over time. 95% of our portfolios with 10-year track records have outperformed since inception.

In a world obsessed with immediacy and instant gratification, our strength lies in our consistency. We have turned governance, transformation, and what some might call 'old-school values' into an enduring edge, because it turns out, in markets, even credibility compounds.

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we can ask better questions, think more deeply, and engage thoughtfully with a world that is evolving at extraordinary speed. While much is changing, I know that a few fundamentals will continue to anchor us: A growth mindset matters, principles still count, and long-term discipline continues to prevail.

*This article is an edited version of a message delivered by Kirshni Totaram at Talking Investments with Coronation 2026.

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