Anheuser-Busch InBev's (ABI) is the largest beer producer in the world by volume in a business where scale begets profitability and returns. The company has a few tough years behind it with Covid lockdowns impacting beer sales and rapidly increasing input costs in the last 18 months, hurting profitability. These events came on the back of a few years of disappointing volume performances from some of the key regions, the US in particular. ABI has since refocused their efforts on brand building and category expansion which was starting to bear fruit before the recent Covid and input cost crises. As sales normalise and input costs abate, we expect ABI’s pricing power and volume growth strategy to lead to a normalisation of margins at the operating profit level. Given their relatively elevated gearing levels, the de-gearing from this point leads to a 12% CAGR in USD earnings per share over the next five years. Despite the recent strong share price performance, we still see value in the ABI share price; currently trading at 17 times one-year multiple on depressed earnings.

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